We should know more about the national unemployment picture on Thursday, when the Labor Department releases its monthly jobs report. Most economists are expecting unemployment to drop for the second month in a row, but the data might not be as accurate as we’d like.
That’s partly because since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has said it might be undercounting the number of workers classified as “unemployed on temporary layoff” — furloughed workers, in other words.
The Labor Department calculates the number of jobs added or lost along with the unemployment rate by calling up a representative group of Americans and asking them about their employment status. The department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said it is now providing more training and new instructions to the people asking the questions.
“What we have is a coding problem,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. But he added that the problem isn’t like the kind of coding that goes into software.
“We have individuals interviewing people who say, ‘Well, I’m a stadium worker, but there’s no work.’ They were classified as employed when they should have been classified as unemployed,” he said.
Turns out it’s a really confusing situation, both for the questioners and those answering them.
“If you get called up and you’re asked, ‘Are you employed?’ it’s a good question,” said Michael Pearce at Capital Economics. “If you’re a restaurant manager and your restaurant should be reopening, but you’re not sure when, it really is an open question, you know? Am I employed or not?”
Pearce said he doesn’t think simple training is going to make answering that question much easier.
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Will the federal government extend the extra COVID-19 unemployment benefits?
It’s still unclear. Congress and President Donald Trump are deciding whether to extend the extra $600 a week in unemployment benefits workers are getting because of the pandemic. Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia believes the program should not be extended, and White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the additional money is disincentivizing some workers from returning to their jobs. Democrats want to keep providing the money until January.
As states lift restrictions, are people going back to stores and restaurants?
States have relaxed their restrictions, and many of us have relaxed, too. Some people have started to make exceptions for visiting restaurants, if only for outdoor dining. Some are only going to places they trust are being extra cautious. But no one we’ve talked to has really gone back to normal. People just aren’t quite there yet.
Will surges in COVID-19 cases mean a return to lockdowns?
In many areas where businesses are reopening, cases of COVID-19 are trending upwards, causing some to ask if the lockdowns were lifted too soon, and if residents and businesses might have to go through it all again. So, how likely is another lockdown, of some sort? The answer depends on who you ask. Many local officials are now bullish about keeping businesses open to salvage their economies. Health experts, though, are concerned.
You can find answers to more questions here.
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