Are COVID-19 infections declining? Testing delays make it difficult to assess - The Dallas Morning News

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If you are wondering why COVID-19 testing is such a logistical mess, just take a look at this weekend’s infection report for Dallas County.

The county reported 5,361 new coronavirus cases Sunday, a truly shocking number for a single day. However, most of these cases weren’t the results of recent tests, but of tests taken weeks or even months ago that weren’t counted in a timely fashion due to problems in the state’s reporting system.

According to data released by Dallas County, 4,298 of the tests had been conducted in July. Of the others, 13 were done in March, 149 in April, 80 in May, 52 in June, and 603 in August. Without the backlogged cases, Dallas County would have reported 166 new cases on Sunday, the lowest daily number the county has reported in months.

As of Sunday, Dallas County has reported a total of 63,428 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 825 deaths, 2,515 probable cases, including seven probable COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic.

Normally, we would sigh in relief at any sign that infections are declining. But trends are only as good as the numbers behind them.

The upside is that patients had been notified of their results when their cases were diagnosed. The downside is the reporting delay prevented contact tracing of these cases to identify others who might have come into contact with those who tested positive for the virus.

The effectiveness of contact tracing depends on timeliness. While most of these are old cases, the system to track other possible infected individuals never got a chance to kick into gear, nor do we know whether there are other batches of cases yet to be reported.

State health officials admit that the state’s data collection system for tracking infectious disease cases was overwhelmed by the virus’ spread, and that changes are underway. Health officials recounted cases, implemented new systems, reformatted data and are working through the transition.

Accurate counts of COVID-19 infections are needed to properly shape our response to this deadly pandemic. We don’t need surprises or miscounts.

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Are COVID-19 infections declining? Testing delays make it difficult to assess - The Dallas Morning News
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