ST. LOUIS -- It’s not just cliché to say no-hitters in Major League Baseball often come down to a matter of inches. Advanced metrics -- such as catch probability and player tracking data -- prove that to be true, especially in the case of Cardinals pitcher Miles Mikolas’ bid on Tuesday night.
One strike away from potentially throwing the franchise’s first no-hitter in 21 years -- and the first one in St. Louis in 39 seasons -- Mikolas saw his bid for history end when Pittsburgh’s Cal Mitchell lined a shot to deep center field and just beyond the reach of Gold Glover Harrison Bader for a ground-rule double.
How difficult of a catch was that to make for Bader, who prides himself on being one of the game’s top defenders? According to MLB’s Stats and Research, Bader needed to cover 80 feet in 4.6 seconds to make the no-hitter-saving grab. Combined with Bader’s direction -- and the fact that the center fielder had to retreat backward -- it gave him a catch probability of 20 percent, per Statcast. Anything with a catch probability from 0-25 percent qualifies as a 5-star catch -- the toughest play in baseball.
“He just kind of flipped it out there, it had backspin on it, and it carried over my head,” a glum Bader said. “I think I can get every ball. … I wish I could push ‘replay’ on a lot of the instances in my baseball career, and this is definitely one of them. But you can’t live like that.”
In his MLB career, Bader has converted 10 5-star catches. Statcast’s catch probability data goes back to 2016, and Bader’s total ranks 11th among MLB outfielders in that period. But that number is even more impressive when considering his MLB debut didn’t come until July 25, 2017. Additionally, Bader’s 52 Outs Above Average since 2018 lead all MLB outfielders by a wide margin (Tampa Bay’s Kevin Kiermaier is second at 43).
Despite the low odds of the catch probability on the play, Bader refused to give himself an out for not making a spectacular grab that would have preserved Mikolas’ no-hitter.
“I don’t accept the fact that you can’t make every play,” the 2021 Gold Glove Award winner said. “I don’t live like that, but next time, you try to be better.”
Here is where Bader’s near-catch came down to a matter of inches. This season, Bader has played at an average starting depth of 324 feet away from home plate. Before the 2-2 pitch from Mikolas -- a 75.6 mph curveball -- that Mitchell drilled 101.4 mph off the bat, Bader was playing at 308 feet away from home plate to try and take away the bloop single in front of him. Had he been at his usual starting depth, Bader likely would have had more time and his catch probability percentage would have been higher.
“If [Bader] can’t get it, nobody can -- except for maybe that guy in the stands who has the, like, three-foot glove,” said a playful Mikolas, who struck out six while throwing a career-high 129 pitches in the 9-1 defeat of Pittsburgh.
“We’re playing shallow, so they don’t kind of doink one in because that’s what you’re always guarding against,” Mikolas continued. “You don’t want to lose it cheap. A guy hits a ball to the track, I’ll give it to him -- and he hit a good pitch. I’m more OK with that than if the dude bloops a broken-bat bleeder in there somewhere. If I throw him a heater or a cutter in and he shatters his bat and flops one in, that kind of stings. But you’ve got to tip your cap.”
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June 14, 2022 at 02:00PM
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Miles Mikolas, Harrison Bader on losing no-hitter - MLB.com
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