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The last Premier League season might only have finished two and a half weeks ago, but the release of the fixture list means the great 2023-24 debate can now get underway.
Yes, every team might have to play each other twice, home and away, but the nature of those fixtures and where they fall can have a huge impact on any team’s season. The excitement of the opening day can quickly give way to a slog through the ‘Big Six’ or a breeze through relegation candidates.
But, objectively, how tough is each team’s start?
The Athletic has ranked every Premier League team based on last season’s table. We’ve added in the three promoted sides Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton Town as the 18th, 19th and 20th hardest teams to play respectively. This does mean that teams like Chelsea, who are historically good but were bad last season are regarded as an ‘easier’ opponent — but there’s also no guarantee they will improve over the summer.
We’ve totted it all up to give each team’s opening five fixtures a ‘difficulty value’. The lower the score, the harder the start to the season.
Where does your team rank? Read on to find out…
It was a superb first full season for Eddie Howe at Newcastle United last time out, culminating in qualification for Champions League football.
This year, though, they have comfortably the toughest start to the campaign. A run of Aston Villa, Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton over their first four games is harder than any other side. That’s four teams in a row who all qualified for Europe.
Newcastle will have to be at their best in their opening matches.
Fixtures: Aston Villa, Manchester City, Liverpool, Brighton, Brentford
Total ‘difficulty value’: 28
Julen Lopetegui stabilised Wolves last campaign and they ended up comfortably avoiding relegation.
He will do well to lead them to a good start this time out, though. They begin their season with matches against Manchester United and Brighton, with Liverpool as their fifth game.
Fixtures: Manchester United, Brighton, Everton, Crystal Palace, Liverpool
Total difficulty value: 42
3 — Manchester United
Erik ten Hag had a fine first season in charge at Old Trafford, but his opening couple of games were very difficult. Defeats against Brighton and Brentford caused some early doubts.
It’s not much easier here. They only take on one side that finished in the bottom five places or are newly promoted.
Fixtures: Wolves, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest, Arsenal, Brighton
Total difficulty value: 45
4 — Brentford
Brentford managed a top-half finish in the Premier League last season and they are a club that constantly looks to improve.
Thomas Frank’s team, who will be without Ivan Toney until January 2024, could have been handed a kinder opening five matches, facing Tottenham and Newcastle first and last respectively.
Fixtures: Tottenham, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Newcastle United
Total difficulty value: 48
4 = Bournemouth
Gary O’Neill did an exceptional job to keep Bournemouth up, given how they started last campaign.
He will be hoping to put the team on firmer footing over their opening five matches this time out. Results in any of those matches might prove quite tough — put that down to playing Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea.
Fixtures: West Ham, Liverpool, Tottenham, Brentford, Chelsea
Total difficulty value: 48
6 — Fulham
Like their west London rivals Brentford, Fulham recorded a surprise top-half finish last season.
Second-season syndrome can be a challenge, though. Their opening and closing games of the first five are kind: Everton and Luton Town respectively.
But in the middle of those matches includes clashes with last season’s champions and runners-up.
Fixtures: Everton, Brentford, Arsenal, Manchester City, Luton Town
Total difficulty value: 49
7 — Crystal Palace
While it was Roy Hodgson to the rescue last season for Crystal Palace, their managerial situation for next season remains unclear.
Whoever takes charge will be hoping for a bright start against Sheffield United on the opening day. But a four-game run against sides that all finished above 13th makes it a somehwhat tricky opening.
Fixtures: Sheffield United, Arsenal, Brentford, Wolves, Aston Villa
Total difficulty value: 50
8 — Liverpool
Last season was an inconsistent one for Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp. Only a late run saw them secure European football by finishing fifth.
They do not have an ideal start this time out. Klopp and his team kick off their season with a trip to Chelsea — who finished 12th last season but might be rejuvenated by the appointment of Mauricio Pochettino.
They also play Newcastle and Aston Villa in this five-game period.
Fixtures: Chelsea, Bournemouth, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Wolves
Total difficulty value: 51
8 = Everton
Well, at least no one on Merseyside can claim their local rivals have been given an easier start: Everton’s total ‘difficulty value’ is exactly the same as Liverpool’s.
Everton only just avoided relegation last time out, but do have winnable games in this season’s openers. That said, they do play Arsenal in game five, which will represent a major challenge.
Fixtures: Fulham, Aston Villa, Wolves, Sheffield United, Arsenal
Total difficulty value: 51
10 — Burnley
Welcome to the Premier League, Burnley.
Vincent Kompany will face old friends on the opening night as champions Manchester City — his former club — take on Burnley.
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Burnley under Vincent Kompany: The Manchester City of the Championship
An easier second game against Luton Town is followed by matches against Aston Villa and Spurs.
Fixtures: Manchester City, Luton Town, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest
Total difficulty value: 52
11 — Sheffield United
Nobody expected Sheffield United to win promotion last season, but here they are: back in the Premier League.
Paul Heckingbottom will be relatively happy with his team’s start. They face Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest in their opening two matches, but then comes Manchester City in the third.
Fixtures: Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Manchester City, Everton, Tottenham
Total difficulty value: 53
12 — Brighton
What a season it was for Brighton last campaign. They might have lost Graham Potter but they gained Roberto De Zerbi and a place in Europe for the first time in their history.
There will be a celebratory atmosphere among their fans when they take on Luton Town on the opening day. They then play Newcastle and Manchester United in the following weeks — although you’d expected De Zerbi to relish that challenge.
Fixtures: Luton Town, Wolves, West Ham, Newcastle, Manchester United
Total difficulty value: 54
12 = West Ham
It seems likely that David Moyes will stay on as West Ham manager next season following the club’s success in the Europa Conference League, and he now knows how his side’s campaign will begin.
Bournemouth up first may not be the most difficult of starts, but they also play Chelsea, Brighton and Manchester City in their first five.
Fixtures: Bournemouth, Chelsea, Brighton, Luton Town, Manchester City
Total ‘difficulty value’: 54
12 = Nottingham Forest
A good run towards the end of the season saw Nottingham Forest retain their Premier League status, so there won’t be much in the way of concern over their opening five matches.
This set of fixtures is very much a case of taking the good with the bad. (The bad being Arsenal, United and Chelsea.)
Fixtures: Arsenal, Sheffield United, Manchester United, Chelsea, Burnley
Total ‘difficulty value’: 54
15 — Aston Villa
Unai Emery is already a hero at Villa Park after less than a season in charge — and he’ll be looking to improve their seventh-place finish this campaign.
That said, it doesn’t start trouble-free, with Newcastle and Liverpool to play. But overall, it’s better than some other teams will contend with.
Fixtures: Newcastle United, Everton, Burnley, Liverpool, Crystal Palace
Total ‘difficulty value’: 55
16 — Arsenal
Arsenal had a much better 2022-23 than anyone anticipated. They came close to the Premier League title and qualified for the Champions League.
Their new season starts off on solid ground, at home to Nottingham Forest. Their toughest fixture in these openers may prove to be Manchester United.
Fixtures: Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Manchester United, Everton
Total ‘difficulty value’: 57
17 — Luton Town
Luton Town will compete in the Premier League for the first time ever in 2023-24 — and they won’t be too worried about their opening five matches.
Admittedly, Brighton to start will be tough, but the rest of their fixtures might provide an opportunity for them to pick up points.
Fixtures: Brighton, Burnley, Chelsea, West Ham, Fulham
Total ‘difficulty value’: 60
18 — Tottenham Hotspur
Ange Postecoglou was drafted to fix Tottenham, who had a miserable campaign last season.
He will look at his opening run as a blessing. They face two newly promoted teams and just one who finished in the top four last season.
Fixtures: Brentford, Manchester United, Bournemouth, Burnley, Sheffield United
Total ‘difficulty value’: 64
19 — Manchester City
Champions and treble winners — last season could not have gone much better for Pep Guardiola and his Manchester City players.
Inevitably, though, he’ll be looking to improve. There’s a chance for some early momentum, given their run of opening games. Newcastle, who they play second, could prove their most difficult challenge of the lot.
Fixtures: Burnley, Newcastle United, Sheffield United, Fulham, West Ham
Total ‘difficulty value’: 65
20 — Chelsea
No team in the Premier League last season underachieved more than Chelsea. A 12th-place finish represented their lowest final position since the Roman Abramovich takeover in 2003.
They now have Mauricio Pochettino in charge and will be looking for a totally different outcome this season. Their start could allow for that.
Yes, Liverpool on the opening day will be tough but then it’s three of last season’s bottom-half sides and one promoted team to follow.
Fixtures: Liverpool, West Ham, Luton Town, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth
Total ‘difficulty value’: 70
(Photos: Getty Images)
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