SYDNEY—Australia is moving to capitalize on its success containing the spread of coronavirus, laying out a detailed three-step plan to reboot the economy while avoiding a second-wave outbreak and the need to reimpose curbs.
The goal is to move through all three stages by July, as strict social-distancing measures in recent weeks appear to have suppressed the pathogen’s spread. Infection rates have dropped markedly, with six of Australia’s eight states and territories going multiple days without a single new case.
“We’ve been fighting the virus and we are winning,” Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Friday. “It is our goal to move through all of these steps to achieve that Covid-safe economy in July of this year.”
Countries, mostly in Europe and Asia, are juggling the risks of loosening restrictions and the benefits of kick-starting their beleaguered economies. Australia is part of a group of small and midsize economies, including New Zealand, Austria, Israel, Denmark, the Czech Republic and Greece, that are comparing notes on how they have suppressed the virus, with a view to clubbing together to help their economies recover. Australia and New Zealand are also working on a plan to ease restrictions on travel between the neighboring countries.
Australia’s central bank on Friday forecast the economy will contract 6% in calendar 2020, with the jobless rate soaring as high as 9% from about 5% by the end of the year. The government estimates its reopening plan will restore some 850,000 jobs in the months ahead.
“If we wish to reclaim the ground we lost, we cannot be too timid,” Mr. Morrison said Friday. “There will be outbreaks, there will be more cases, there will be setbacks. Not everything will go to plan.”
But Mr. Morrison said there are “very few countries” that could even consider such a plan right now. “We cannot allow our fear of going backwards stop us from going forwards,” he said.
The first step will be allowing outdoor gatherings of up to 10 people, up from a strict two-person limit currently, and up to five guests at home. Schools, playgrounds and golf courses will reopen, and some retailers, cafes and restaurants will be allowed to open, if they are able to limit the number of patrons.
Step two will allow larger size gatherings of up to 20 people, along with the resumption of community sport. Cinemas, galleries and beauty parlors will be allowed to open. By the third stage, the limit on public gatherings will increase to 100 people, most people will be back at work, and some interstate travel will likely resume.
As in the U.S., where states including Georgia, Ohio and Idaho have let some businesses reopen, Australia’s state governments will be able to tailor the plan to suit them. South Australia state said it would allow outdoor dining at restaurants and cafes, permit some access to universities, open public libraries, pools, churches, community halls and restart auctions from Monday. Tropical Queensland state said it would ease its coronavirus restrictions from next week to allow outdoor gatherings of 10 people and recreational travel of up to 93 miles.
But Australia’s two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria, which are still dealing with clusters at a rest home and a meat works, were more cautious, with no immediate plans to move to step one.
Australia has recorded about 6,900 Covid-19 cases—early projections had indicated the number could reach as high as 150,000 without containment measures—and fewer than 100 deaths, in a population of roughly 25 million. The country’s testing rate per capita is among the highest in the world.
The government has said testing and tracking measures will need to remain in place to stamp out any flare-ups. Some five million people have so far downloaded the official contact-tracing phone app, modeled on a similar initiative in Singapore, to help authorities identify people with whom a coronavirus patient has been in close contact.
“We’re in uncharted territory. There’s not many countries in the world like Australia that are in a position to start gently relaxing measures with such low case numbers,” said Brendan Murphy, Australia’s chief medical officer. “We don’t want to lose the control we’ve got.”
Write to Rachel Pannett at rachel.pannett@wsj.com
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