A New York football team led by a backup quarterback kept its nearly non-existent playoff hopes alive this week with an improbable victory over an in-conference contender.
Stop if you’ve heard this before.
Indeed, the Giants’ walk-off win against the Packers on Monday night improved their record to 5-8, allowing fantasies about a near-impossible run to the postseason to creep back in.
Just like the Jets, whose win Sunday against the Texans made them 5-8, the Giants possess a 0.4% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, which projects postseason probability.
The Giants, on a three-game winning streak behind undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito, are a game out of the third and final NFC Wild Card spot but would have to jump five teams — the Packers, Rams, Seahawks, Falcons and Saints — in four weeks to claim it. Those teams are each 6-7.
It’s a more straightforward path than that of the Jets, who must jump seven teams. The Giants, however, have the NFL’s second-hardest remaining schedule based on their opponents’ combined .615 winning percentage, according to Tankathon. The Jets’ upcoming opponents combine for a .462 winning percentage.
The Giants’ brutal schedule, no margin for error and offensive issues throughout the season each contribute to the team’s infinitesimal playoff odds.
But let’s explore what a path to the playoffs might look like.
Week 15
Likely the easiest game left on the Giants’ schedule comes Sunday, when they travel to New Orleans to face the Saints.
New Orleans snapped a three-game losing streak over the weekend by beating the NFL-worst Panthers, but the Saints have otherwise struggled over the past month amid quarterback Derek Carr’s nagging injuries.
A win by the Giants would leave both teams at 6-8 and give Big Blue the head-to-head tiebreaker over New Orleans.
Giants fans should grit their teeth and root Sunday for their hated rival Eagles to beat the Seahawks, who hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over New York. A Seahawks loss would drop them to 6-8 as well.
If the Packers beat the Buccaneers in Green Bay and the Falcons defeat the lowly Panthers, Atlanta would take the AFC South lead.
The current No. 6 seed Vikings going on a tailspin could actually hurt the Giants due to the NFL’s multi-team-tiebreaker formula, though many scenarios have Minnesota either clinching that sixth spot or falling out of contention entirely. Either way, a Vikings win over the Bengals would help down the line.
Week 16
This is where life gets more difficult for the Giants, who have a Christmas Day date with the Eagles in Philadelphia.
The Giants have lost five games in a row to Philadelphia, including in the playoffs last season, and will be facing a motivated Eagles team currently in a dead heat with the Cowboys for the NFC East crown.
It might take a Christmas miracle for the Giants to exorcise their Philly demons, though the Eagles have appeared vulnerable in back-to-back blowout losses to the 49ers and Cowboys.
A win would leave the Giants 7-8 and make their path to playoffs appear a bit more realistic, even if the Packers beat the Panthers and the Seahawks defeated the Titans.
The Lions and Vikings splitting their two remaining matchups would put Detroit in the driver’s seat for the NFC North title. We’ll say the Vikings win Week 16 in Minnesota and the Lions win Week 18 in Detroit.
The outcome of Rams vs. Saints likely wouldn’t matter, considering the Giants’ next opponent.
Week 17
Next up for the Giants are the resurgent Rams, whose three-game winning streak was snapped Sunday with an overtime loss to the AFC-leading Ravens.
Los Angeles is no longer the star-powered juggernaut that won the Super Bowl two years ago, but it still boasts a solid offense led by quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Even if Los Angeles wins in Weeks 15 and 16, the Giants would claim the head-to-head tiebreaker with a home win over the Rams.
Seattle losing to the Steelers would simplify things, but even if Seattle won, the Giants would remain alive entering the regular season’s final week.
The winner of a Week 17 matchup between the Vikings and Packers would be the No. 6 seed, while the loser would be on the outside looking in.
Week 18
If somehow all of the above manifested, the Giants would still have to beat the Eagles again in Week 18. They’d be at home this time, but the Giants haven’t swept the season series since 2007.
Seattle plays Arizona in Week 18, while the Packers face the Bears. Wins by all would leave the Giants, Seattle and whoever lost the previous week’s Vikings-Packers game at 9-8.
In this specific scenario, the Giants would claim the No. 7 seed due to the NFL’s multi-team-tiebreaker formula, which considers factors such as record in in-conference games. The Giants would finish 8-4 against the NFC if they won out.
The Rams winning in San Francisco in Week 18 would also leave them 9-8 but would not change the playoff standings.
Other scenarios allow the Giants to slide into the No. 6 seed. The vast majority of outcomes, though, have the Giants missing the playoffs.
To pull off the unthinkable, the Giants need to win out — and get a ton of help along the way.
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