Employers and potential employees must weigh the odds of being selected in the FY 2025 H-1B registration process that runs from March 6 to March 22, 2024. USCIS uses random selection when company H-1B registrations exceed the annual limit of 85,000. That includes the 65,000 annual limit and a 20,000 exemption for advanced degree holders from U.S. universities. The 85,000 limit for new H-1B visa holders equals 0.05% of the U.S. labor force.
Changes To The H-1B Registration Process
The electronic registration process began in 2020 during the Trump administration. Due to the unanticipated impact of the increasing number of registrations, in a final rule published on February 2, 2024, USCIS switched the H-1B selection process starting this year to “beneficiary-centered.” Attorneys and companies expect this will end the practice of some employers sending in multiple registrations for the same individual without intending to make legitimate job offers.
The new system will change the process but is unlikely to solve a fundamental shortcoming in U.S. immigration law—the H-1B annual limit is too low for America’s size and an economy that relies on technical talent to grow and innovate.
The Impact Of The New Rule
The new rule making the H-1B lottery beneficiary-centric will help the process. However, it might not have a significant impact on the final percentage of eligible H-1B applicants selected. USCIS was already indirectly addressing multiple registrations for the same individuals by conducting extra selection rounds.
In last year’s first round of selection, USCIS chose only 14.6% of eligible H-1B registrations for the FY 2024 cap. The percentage was so low because many selections were registrations for the same individuals. USCIS selected registrations in additional rounds until it chose enough to reach or exceed the annual limit. USCIS needed to make over 188,000 selections for FY 2024 compared to 127,600 for FY 2023. (USCIS selects more than the 85,000 annual limit to allow for denials and withdrawals.)
After completing the process with the additional rounds, the agency selected not 14.6%, as in the first round, but almost 25% of all eligible H-1B registrations. With the issue of multiple registrations for the same individual eliminated, the percentage of H-1B registrations selected this year for FY 2025 likely will be higher than in the first selection round last year for the FY 2024 cap.
(The agency defines eligible registrations as excluding “duplicate registrations, those deleted by the prospective employer prior to the close of the registration period, and those with failed payments.”)
USCIS Has Selected A Declining Percentage Of Registrations
USCIS has selected a declining percentage of eligible registrations in the past four years. For FY 2021, USCIS selected 46.1% or 124,415 of 269,424 eligible registrations. For FY 2022, the agency chose 43.8% or 131,925 of 301,447 eligible registrations. For FY 2023, USCIS selected 26.9% or 127,600 of 474,421 eligible registrations. For FY 2024, the agency chose 24.8% or 188,400 of 758,994.
USCIS data that show declining selection percentages are for all eligible registrations. The percentages likely differed depending on whether a registration was eligible for the advanced degree exemption.
Not All H-1B Registrations Are Equal
The 2019 rule improved the selection opportunities for H-1B registrations for individuals with a master’s degree or higher from a U.S. university.
In January 2019, when USCIS published a final rule moving from employers mailing in completed paper-based applications to submitting H-1B registrations electronically, the agency also altered selection chances depending on the level and location of a foreign national’s education. “This final rule also changes the process by which USCIS counts H-1B registrations (or petitions, for FY 2020 or any other year in which the registration requirement will be suspended), by first selecting registrations submitted on behalf of all beneficiaries, including those eligible for the advanced degree exemption,” according to the agency’s summary of the rule. “USCIS will then select from the remaining registrations a sufficient number projected as needed to reach the advanced degree exemption.”
USCIS said the change would “increase the number of H-1B beneficiaries with a master's degree or higher from a U.S. institution of higher education selected by 16% (or 5,340 workers each year).”
Additional Considerations
Companies and potential H-1B visa holders may consider additional FY 2025 cap selection issues.
First, unlike in other years, due to the new process, USCIS will likely need only one round to select enough potential beneficiaries to reach the annual limit. That should give employers more certainty and allow international students to know whether USCIS chose their registration before their F-1 status expires.
Second, the increased demand for H-1B petitions and the low annual limit likely will thwart many potential H-1B visa holders. Due to the demand for high-skilled labor in the United States, H-1B registrations with only one employer increased by 66% between FY 2022 and FY 2024. That means even if beneficiaries with multiple registrations were excluded from the lottery in 2023, USCIS would have rejected up to 75% of H-1B registrations for FY 2024 due to the low annual limit, according to an NFAP analysis.
Third, examining earlier USCIS data gives a 25% selection rate as the floor (FY 2024) and 44% as a ceiling (FY 2022) for eligible H-1B registrations selected in FY 2025. It’s unknown whether 25% as the floor is too optimistic due to the low U.S. unemployment rate (and demand for talent in the United States). The unemployment rate was 2.4% in math and computer occupations in January 2024, below the 3.0% in January 2020, before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Some companies might look at the USCIS fee increases and calculate they’ll spend more money next year to file H-1B registrations ($10 vs. $215), which, on the margin, could encourage more filings this year. Some companies also may be worried about gaining admissions or approvals next year if Donald Trump is elected president in November 2024. If Trump uses 212(f) authority, as he did during the Covid-19 pandemic, he could block H-1B professionals from entering the United States (but not individuals who change status inside America, such as students). Companies submitting registrations for individuals not selected in previous lotteries also affect the total.
The Low Annual Limit
The problem for employers and eligible professionals is not duplicate registrations but the low annual limit in a technology-driven economy. More than 70% of the full-time graduate students in electrical engineering and computer and information sciences at U.S. universities are international students. Among doctorate holders (Ph.D.’s) in the U.S. performing research and development (R&D) as a major work activity, 83% in computer and information sciences and 80% in electrical and computer engineering are foreign-born, according to an NFAP analysis.
Employers file H-1B petitions in nearly all sectors of the U.S. economy, including health care and manufacturing. Economists point out that technology is now part of almost every business. However, employers under U.S. law have few alternatives besides H-1B status to hire or retain high-skilled foreign nationals.
The fundamental problem will remain that the 85,000 annual limit for new H-1B petitions is small in a technology-driven economy with 167 million people in the labor force.
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