“You sportswriters are learning a lot about the predictions business this year, aren’t you?” Without looking up I knew the Grand Geek had come down from the Almost Perfect Picks Department. I looked up and noticed his Band of Nerds watching from the hallway between the War Room and the break room.
I waited for GG to go on, and he did.
“Just checking out the preseason writers’ poll, I notice that just four weeks into this season that only half of the predicted preseason top 10 still are in the top ten,” he said, somewhat smugly.
“You mean the Associated Press poll,” I said. “I’m not a voter, and never have been. But I am aware there have been some teams that haven’t lived up to expectations.”
“Some,” he said. “Some! Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Clemson have all fallen out of the top 10, but are clinging to spots in the top 25. And by clinging, Clemson is at No. 25. But Iowa State and North Carolina are gone, not even in the top 25.
“Some other notables,” he continued. “Wisconsin was 12, now gone; 14 Miami, gone; 15 Southern Cal, gone…and the coach gone, too. Indiana, Washington, Texas, Louisiana, Utah, Arizona State – all preseason top 25, all gone.
“And we’re only one-third of the way into the season,” he concluded.
“I think I see your point,” I said, and then pointed to the sheet of paper he held. “Is that the results of your department’s predictions?”
He handed it over and headed back to his office.
“The writers did have Alabama number one preseason, and Alabama is still number one,” I said to his back, but he didn’t seem to notice.
Last week the Nerds were 5-3 on picking winners, 4-4 against the betting line, and a perfect 8-0 on the over-under (combined points by both teams).
After four weeks, the Geek Gang is 36-11 on predicting winners, but only 22-19 against the points spread and 22-19 vs. the o-u.
Here are last week’s Southeastern Conference results:
Georgia (3-0 overall, 1-0 SEC) at Vanderbilt (1-2, 0-0). Georgia favored by 34 ½ points (-34 ½), over-under 51 ½. PREDICTION: Georgia 49, Vanderbilt 9. ACTUAL: Georgia 62, Vandy 0. Correct on everything, winner, vs. the spread, o-u.
LSU (2-1, 0-0) at Mississippi State (2-1, 0-0). LSU -2 ½, o-u 56. PREDICTION: Mississippi State 28, LSU 24. ACTUAL: LSU 28, Mississippi State 25. Wrong on winner and the line, right on o-u.
Missouri (2-1, 0-1) at Boston College (3-0). Mizzou -2 ½, o-u 59. PREDICTION: Missouri 38, Boston College 28. ACTUAL: Boston College 41, Missouri 34 (overtime). Incorrect on winner and vs. the spread, correct on the o-u.
Texas A&M (3-0, 0-0) vs. Arkansas (3-0, 0-0) at Arlington. TAMU -5 ½, o-u 48. PREDICTION: Texas A&M 27, Arkansas 20. ACTUAL: Arkansas 20, TAMU 10. Wrong on winner and the line, right on the o-u.
Georgia State (2-2) at Auburn (2-1, 0-0). Auburn -27, o-u 57. PREDICTION: Auburn 49, Georgia State 13. ACTUAL: Auburn 34, Georgia State 24. Correct on winner, incorrect vs. the spread, right on the o-u.
Tennessee (2-1, 0-0) at Florida (2-1, 0-1). Florida -20, o-u 63. PREDICTION: Florida 41, Tennessee 17. ACTUAL: Forida 38, Tennessee 14. Right on everything, winner, vs. the line, o-u.
Kentucky 3-0, 1-0) at South Carolina (2-1, 0-1). Kentucky -5 ½, o-u 49. PREDICTION: Kentucky 28, South Carolina 17. ACTUAL: UK 16, SC 10. Correct on everything, winner, spread, o-u.
Southern Miss (1-2) at Alabama (3-0, 1-0). Bama -44 ½, o-u 58. PREDICTION: Alabama 48, Southern Miss 0. ACTUAL: Right on everything, winner, vs. line, o-u.
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