GRAPEVINE, Texas -- Following the conclusion of the ACC and Big Ten championship games Saturday night, the College Football Playoff selection committee moved from where it watches the games together into the adjacent meeting room to immediately begin discussing and ranking the final top 25 teams for Selection Day.
It might have been a shorter meeting this year.
With Alabama, Michigan and Cincinnati all winning, it's possible the committee could reveal the same top four teams on Selection Day, with a slight reshuffling of the order. Here's a look at what it has to consider in its most important meeting of the season:
Alabama dominated the No. 1 team. So what does it mean for Georgia?
Alabama should earn the top spot, which means it will face undefeated Cincinnati in a semifinal, assuming the Bearcats hold steady at No. 4. Unless Georgia sinks that far -- which would set up a rematch between the Bulldogs and the Crimson Tide.
It doesn't seem likely that Georgia would drop behind the Bearcats because the Bulldogs have been the committee's No. 1 team all season long, and their only loss was to the No. 3 team in the country -- even if it was lopsided.
Remember, even at 9-1 after Alabama lost to Texas A&M, the Tide were still No. 2 in the committee's eyes. Georgia's lone loss was far less damaging, and the Bulldogs entered the game ranked in the top two in offensive and defensive efficiency. While critics will point to Georgia's mediocre strength of schedule, the Bulldogs still have three wins against CFP top-25 teams: No. 20 Clemson, No. 22 Arkansas and No. 23 Kentucky.
The committee does not consider rematches when ranking the top four teams, but it does try to avoid them when assigning teams to other New Year's Six bowls. How far Georgia falls will be one of the group's biggest questions, and as good as Georgia has been all season, the committee has rules it has to follow.
The protocol states the committee has the flexibility to select a non-champion or an independent "under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country."
As long as the committee agrees Georgia is hands down one of the four best teams in the country, it doesn't have to resort to its tiebreakers, one of which is a conference championship.
0:48
Baylor's defense comes up big and stops Oklahoma State on fourth down to secure the Big 12 title.
Oklahoma State came up inches short -- leaving the Big 12 miles away from the playoff
With 24 seconds remaining and the game-winning touchdown seemingly just one more half-step away, Dezmon Jackson's fourth-down dive will be frozen in history. He was pushed out of bounds before he could reach the pylon on a play that changed the course of the committee's conversation.
With two-loss Baylor winning the Big 12, Cincinnati no longer had to worry about possibly being elbowed out of the top four by one-loss Oklahoma State. As the game unfolded, it didn't appear Cincinnati had much to be concerned about anyway, as the Cowboys and Bears both underwhelmed in their auditions for a top-four spot. Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders threw a career-worst four interceptions.
According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Oklahoma State entered the game with a 37% chance to reach the playoff, but the loss dropped that to .1% and eliminated the Cowboys and most likely the entire Big 12. In spite of three wins against CFP top-25 teams and a Big 12 title, Baylor's two losses will keep it out of a semifinal and possibly even behind one-loss Notre Dame. The Bears should wind up in the Allstate Sugar Bowl, though, against Ole Miss.
Cincinnati finished the job and should make CFP history
Welcome to the club, Cincinnati.
Everything the Bearcats needed came to fruition this season -- and it was a laundry list of minor miracles. Their perfect 13-0 record for the first time in school history, a convincing win against No. 21 Houston to claim the American Athletic Conference title, a win against a Notre Dame team that only looked better as the season progressed -- and enough chaos throughout the rest of the sport every week that Cincinnati was able to enter the top four and stay there.
It was enough to overcome a strength of schedule that ranked No. 96 in the country entering Saturday -- a familiar obstacle that has kept out other undefeated Group of 5 teams in the past. It remains the biggest reason, though, Cincinnati's ceiling is likely No. 4 on Selection Day.
Michigan left no doubt it's the Big Ten's best team this year
Remember when everyone flipped out because the selection committee ranked Michigan ahead of Michigan State in spite of the head-to-head win 10 days earlier?
Yeah, the committee doesn't either.
Michigan has validated that move ever since, dismantling Ohio State to clinch the Big Ten East, and then outplaying Iowa to win the Big Ten title and lock up a spot in the top four on Sunday. Selection committee chair Gary Barta has repeatedly called Michigan a balanced team, and the Wolverines entered Saturday ranked in the top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Michigan won its first Big Ten title in 17 years, a surreal stretch for one of the nation's blue-blood programs. That conference title is why the committee will likely keep Michigan at No. 2 ahead of Georgia.
Final prediction: No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Cincinnati.
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December 05, 2021 at 12:21PM
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College Football Playoff takeaways - Alabama, Michigan, Cincy make things easy for committee - ESPN
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